But the economy also truly flourished during portions of Truman’s tenure. NOAA. Clinton (1999), 4.7% He responded to the 9/11 attacks by creating Homeland Security and launching the War on Terror. GDP Growth by President . Hoover had the lowest growth rate in 1932. The Great Depression began in August of 1929 and the stock market crashed in October. Nixon (1973), 5.6%
Mercatus Center, George Mason University. Average economic growth under President Trump has outpaced the growth under Barack Obama, but not all of his recent predecessors. "A Case Study: The 1948-1949 Recession," page 29. President Donald Trump has had no recessions and no new wars.
Instead, Reagan increased the budget by 2.5% annually. Recently released GDP figures for the second quarter of 2016 invite the question of how the gross domestic product has fared under each of the dozen post-World War II presidents, a period spanning 70 years. In 1946, the economy severely retracted, with a decline in real GDP that was more than four times as large (-11.6 percent) as in any year since. Yes, but: If history is any guide, an incumbent president isn't going to have a great shot at re-election if the economy tips into a recession under their watch.
World War II also affected President Harry Truman, as the economy contracted 11.6% in 1946. There have been periods with “high growth, low inflation, rapid productivity, and the gains from growth were being broadly shared across society. While solid, “this is not a gangbusters economy,” Nathan Sheets, who’s held roles at the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, tells Axios. If a president spurs growth too much, then the Fed may use monetary policy to prevent inflation or a bubble. When you look at GDP growth rates, one quickly realizes he is gaslighting the American public. He agreed to a $100 million bank bailout. The recession reduced revenue, creating pressure to cut spending and balance the budget, but instead, Bush raised taxes, costing him Republican support for his reelection.
Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is a measure of total income in the economy. The Fed responded to those expansionary fiscal policies by raising interest rates. That’s the sum of all the growth rates during a president’s term in office, divided by the number of years. Tax Policy Center. G. H. W. Bush (1989), 3.7% Businesses were too unnerved by the trade war to spend money on new factories or equipment — a key driver of growth. He also approved a bank bailout package to prevent a financial collapse. According to figures from the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), average annual real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth in the United States since 1946 (through 2015, the last full year for which figures have been released) has been 2.9 percent. Government spending fell once the war ended. He signed the North American Free Trade Agreement, and it boosted growth by eliminating tariffs among the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Clinton (1993-2000), 3.9% To slow growth, it reduces bank lending by raising interest rates. Reagan (1981-88), 3.5%
He also ended the Vietnam War. That makes it a good way to determine which president has had the biggest impact on the economy. In fact, Truman’s best year of economic growth (8.7 percent, in 1950) was better than any other postwar president’s best year. Bush, the economy grew around 2% throughout his presidency, reflecting a return to growth after a recession and spiking unemployment that contributed to his election loss. (Average best year for post-WWII presidents: 5.6%) 1. Growth under Trump has yet to hit his oft-promised 3% mark annually. "Fiscal Policy." Reagan (1984), 7.3% Kennedy (1962), 6.1% She writes about the U.S. Economy for The Balance. G. W. Bush (2001-08), 2.1% It cut taxes, extended unemployment benefits, and funded public works projects. Growth in gross domestic product is an obviously flawed measure of a president’s economic record. In 1930, Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act to protect domestic industries. Page 1. Accessed March 27, 2020. Post-World War II, President Lyndon B. Johnson had the highest average, at 5.3% because he boosted growth with government spending on the Vietnam War and many social programs. Ford (1976), 5.4% The 2010 Affordable Care Act expanded health insurance and Medicaid, slowing the rise of healthcare costs. Nevertheless, he increased spending and cut taxes. It is the percent change in the gross domestic product from one quarter or year to the next. That includes presidents Dwight Eisenhower at 3%, George H. W. Bush at 2.9%, George W. Bush at 2.2%, and Donald Trump at 2.7%.
Kennedy (1961-63), 4.3% Growth. President Gerald R. Ford inherited stagflation. Promoting American leadership and global engagement for a secure, free, and prosperous future. Between the lines: Economists dispute how much credit presidents can take for a booming or sagging economy under their watch. Accessed March 27, 2020. They prevent a bubble by increasing taxes or cutting spending. Herbert Hoover (1929-1933) Herbert Hoover’s average annual growth rate was -9.3%, the worst of all presidents. Why it matters: There are just under four weeks until the election. Accessed March 27, 2020.
Here is a more detailed look at each president’s economic record, with summaries of their reactions to the recessions, wars, and other events they encountered.
Carter ((1978), 5.6% Accessed March 27, 2020. Accessed March 27, 2020. The business cycle explains why faster growth is not always better growth. The fastest, post-war year of growth was under President Ronald Reagan. Roosevelt’s 9.3% annual average was the highest, while Hoover’s 9.3% decline was the lowest. Clinton created a $63 billion budget surplus, lowering the debt. In the early years of the recovery, growth was lackluster, but it started to pick up in 2014 and 2015. Recently released GDP figures for the second quarter of 2016 invite the question of how the gross domestic product has fared under each of the dozen post-World War II presidents, a period spanning 70 years. The Trump campaign is quickly turning what was expected to be a buttoned-up vice presidential debate into a TV spectacle. He deregulated oil prices to spur domestic production, and he deregulated the trucking and airline industries while expanding the national park system. That was gangbusters,” says Sheets. What he’s saying: “Our economy is the best it has ever been,” Trump said earlier this month in his State of the Union speech. National Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Accessed March 27, 2020. President Lyndon B. Johnson was sworn in two hours after JFK’s assassination. Eisenhower’s desire to balance the budget meant he refused to use fiscal policy to stimulate the economy.. Another way to examine economic success under various presidents is to look at whether the economy ever really grew significantly on their watch. In 1973, Nixon ended the gold standard entirely and the dollar’s value plummeted. Bush responded to the 2008 financial crisis by sending out tax rebate checks. He nationalized mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and insurance giant AIG.
The Great Depression affected both, but spending to gear up for the nation’s entry into World War II boosted FDR’s growth numbers. After a painful 2009, the economy has been growing for a decade. Eisenhower (1953-60), 3.0% He also brokered the International Climate Agreement to address climate change. Why it matters: GDP is the most comprehensive economic scorecard — and something presidents, especially Trump, use as an example of success. Those figures, being from an incomplete year, are not included in President Obama’s tally. President Trump says the economy is the best ever. President Harry Truman’s average, for example, is held down dramatically by his having been in office in the immediate aftermath of WWII.
He eased bank regulations, which eventually led to the 1989 Savings and Loan Crisis. How President Reagan Ended the 1980s Recession, How U.S. Militarism Weakens Its Economic Power. Accessed March 27, 2020. He also briefly cut federal spending by reforming welfare in 1996.. The Effect of Presidential Economic Policy on the Economy, Presidents With the Best and Worst GDP Growth, Presidents With the Best and Worst Average Annual Growth.
Looking at the best and worst years isn’t really a good way to gauge a president’s economic impact. C.I. President Trump and Joe Biden at the first presidential debate.
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